Peg to CNY is still unlikely.
BMI Research said it expects the Hong Kong dollar's peg against the US dollar to stay firmly in place over the coming years, and it believes that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has sufficient firepower to maintain currency stability, even in the event of significant volatility in global markets.
A peg to the CNY is unlikely as the currency is still not fully convertible, and doing so will run against the Basic Law and Hong Kong's aim to continue to be a leading global financial centre, despite the territory's significant trade linkages and growing financial flows with the mainland.
Here's more from BMI Research:
In our view, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA)'s Hong Kong dollar peg to the US dollar for the past three decades is likely to remain firmly intact over the coming
The hawkish statement following the US Federal Reserve's decision to raise its Fed fund rate by 25 basis points (bps) on December 14 2016 has resulted in a rise in US bond yields, and this tends to cause capital outflows, including for Hong Kong.
The capital outflows would therefore lead to an upward adjustment in local interest rates in Hong Kong to attempt to match that in the US, which will help to stabilise the Hong Kong dollar, and also allow the HKMA to maintain the peg without much or any intervention.
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