Cautious demand expected in 2026/27 land tenders

Land revenue forecast set at $18b.

A cautious tender response outlook, continued suspension of commercial land sales, and slower absorption of office supply shape expectations for Hong Kong’s 2026/27 Land Sale Programme, according to Colliers and CBRE commentaries.

Land revenue for 2025/26 is revised to approximately $17.5b, representing about 83.3% of the original estimate, whilst the coming year’s forecast of $18b is lower than the prior year’s initial projection of about $21b. “The forecasting tone is relatively cautious, reflecting the Government's more market-aligned estimates based on current market conditions, the pace of land disposal, and expected tender responses,” said Eric Tsang, acting head of valuation & advisory services at Colliers.

A total of 13 residential sites will be released in the coming financial year through the Government, the MTR Corporation and the Urban Renewal Authority, including three sites carried over from 2025/26 and six new sites in Shek Mun, Ho Man Tin and the Northern Metropolis. Private housing supply over the next five years is estimated at about 98,000 units, averaging around 19,600 units annually.

“The Grade-A office vacancy rate remains elevated at 17.5%, and the market will need more time to absorb the new supply completed in recent years,” said Elliott Hau, head of financing valuation, valuation & advisory services at Colliers.

"The factors impacting the policy effectiveness lie on how the Government assess the market values of current land sites, and the administration time the Government needs," according to Chester Leung, senior director, valuation and advisory services, CBRE Hong Kong.

Two luxury residential sites in Stanley and Sai Kung have been rolled over from the 2025/26 programme and have yet to be tendered in previous years due to subdued market sentiment and slower high-end transactions.

“Should the Government successfully bring these luxury sites to market in the coming fiscal year, it would help strengthen sentiment amongst prospective developers and investors,” said Alvin Leung, senior director, valuation & advisory services at Colliers.

Hannah Jeong, head of valuation & advisory services, CBRE Hong Kong recommends that the government maintain a consistent and transparent land disposal schedule, even amid short‑term market challenges. "This is essential to avoid structural housing supply shortages in the longer term and to provide developers with greater visibility for capital planning and project pipelines," she noted.