UOB lifts Hong Kong 2026 home price forecast

SHKP cut to Hold, Kerry kept Buy.

UOB Kay Hian raised its 2026 home price growth forecast to 7% from 2% after a stronger-than-expected recovery in late 2025 and early 2026.

The broker lifted its primary market transaction volume projection to 25,000 units and forecast secondary volume of 46,520 units, whilst maintaining a Market Weight call on the Hong Kong property sector. 

UOB Kay Hian said improving buyer sentiment has been supported by relatively attractive rental yields and stabilisation in Hong Kong’s population. Still, it expects lower rental yields in 2026 and said potential housing supply remains elevated despite sequential moderation.

On stocks, it downgraded Sun Hung Kai Properties to Hold on limited upside and set a target price of $143.80, whilst maintaining a Buy rating on Kerry Properties with a target price of $30.30.

UOB Kay Hian flagged a faster and greater-than-expected decline in HIBOR as a sector catalyst and risk.