Hong Kong land slowdown points to housing supply squeeze in 2027-2028

JLL says reduced site sales may support prices.

Hong Kong’s private housing market could face a tighter first-hand supply pipeline in 2027 to 2028 after a sharp fall in residential land disposal over the past three financial years, according to JLL.

The property consultancy said sites sold between the 2023/24 and 2025/26 financial years are expected to yield about 6,000 units a year, down from a five-year average of around 11,000 units a year between 2017/18 and 2021/22.

JLL said the roughly 45% drop reflects subdued market conditions, frequent unsuccessful tenders, and a more cautious approach to site releases.

Because private residential projects typically take three to four years from land acquisition to pre-sale launch, the lower land supply is likely to feed through into a trough in first-hand residential supply around 2027 to 2028.

JLL said this would be consistent with broader market expectations for a slowdown in completions and primary launches during that period.

The firm said the current new housing supply is near a short-term peak, but the reduced pipeline suggests the market is moving into a more constrained phase. It added that any longer-term recovery in supply is likely to depend on improved land preparation in new development zones such as the Northern Metropolis.

Norry Lee, senior director of projects strategy and consultancy at JLL in Hong Kong, said developers are now in a better position to take a more measured sales approach as the market recovers and the supply overhang gradually eases.

He added that competition for a limited number of urban land parcels is likely to intensify, leading to more aggressive bidding in future government land sales.

Cathie Chung, senior director of research at JLL in Hong Kong, said the weaker land sale trend was reinforced by Housing Bureau data showing private residential construction starts in 2025 fell to a five-year low of 8,800 units.

She said the shift from a relatively ample supply to a tighter development pipeline should support pricing resilience and reshape developers’ land acquisition, project development, and sales strategies.