Gross gaming revenue to nosedive by 26% to $24b

Table revenue per day is just $738m.

Macau gaming's average daily table revenue stayed at HK$738mn for the period 1-8 December, with this being the same as the daily table revenue of the last reporting period (24-30 November), but slightly lower than the November average daily table revenue of HK$754mn.

According to a research note from Barclays, meanwhile, the MTD runrate implies December GGR could see a 26% y/y decrease.

However, the report also expects that revenue could worsen later this month. The current runrate of HK$738mn for table revenue per day plus a slot revenue full month assumption of HK$1.15bn would imply a 26% y/y decline for December gross gaming revenue (GGR) to HK$24.0bn.

Barclays expects the full month could be worse than that given that we should see weakening revenue around Xi Jinping's visit to Macau later this month.

Here's more from Barclays:

We expect the decline for December GGR to increase again (vs November’s 19.6% y/y decline) with Xi Jinping’s visit and the tighter checks on transit visa passengers.

We expect the GGR trend to remain poor before re-accelerating in mid-2015 on new casino supply growth and a lower VIP base comparison.

We expect overall Macau's GGR growth in 2015 to be weak at 2%, and we only expect that Galaxy and Melco (both rated OW), upon new casino supply, can still see more EBITDA growth; we expect most operators to see EBITDA declines.