Average table win in Macau gaming perks up to HKD930mn

Very good news for the market.

For the week which ended July 13, average daily table win for the week was HKD930mn (MOP957mn), an improvement from the prior week's HKD725mn (MOP746mn), with the market expected to react positively to the following week's average figure.

According to a research note from Nomura, it believes mass trends were strong during the week and several operators may have held above average win rate.

Assuming a daily table win range of MOP850-900mn for the remainder of the month, July GGR could be ~MOP28-29bn (or down 2-5 percent y-y), above consensus of mid-single digit to low teen declines.

The report noted that the World Cup ended on July 13, which removes an overhang.

Here's more from Nomura:

Our checks indicate that mass headcount remains strong and we estimate June 2014 mass revenues could be up ~22-25% y-y.

We estimate VIP revenues could be down ~15-17% y-y with VIP win rate up against a slightly tough comp.

We continue to expect gradual improvement in VIP roll through the remainder of the year and note consensus is expecting a stronger pick-up in 4Q.

It appears Wynn Macau, MGM China and Galaxy may have held above average for the week. The stocks have rallied ~10% on average since the trough in mid-June and, at current levels, we recommend Buy-rated MGM China (2282 HK) for investors with a longer-term investment horizon.

We like MGM for its growing mass exposure at the existing Peninsula property and as it should show the most unit (and therefore EBITDA) growth when its second property opens on Cotai in 1H16.