Hong Kong life sales soar despite investor caution: Jefferies

Local sentiment remained positive as visitor traffic and insurance opportunities strengthened.

Agent-led sales in Hong Kong's life insurance sector are expected to be more evenly distributed throughout the year, which should support second-half momentum for major insurers including AIA and Prudential. 

Hong Kong's life insurance market recorded a 51% year-on-year increase in direct individual new business premiums in the first quarter of 2026, reaching an all-time high of over HK$140b. 

The growth matches the 51% surge seen across full-year 2025, according to equity research from Jefferies tracking Hong Kong Insurance Authority (HKIA) data and visitor flows.

The first-quarter surge was primarily driven by the bancassurance and broker channels, which grew by 48% and 60% year-on-year, respectively. 

These distribution channels traditionally report higher sales volume earlier in the calendar year. 

Despite an ongoing broader industry shift toward bank distribution, AIA maintained its year-on-year market share percentage.

Cross-border sales to Mainland Chinese Visitors (MCVs) continue to serve as a key driver for life insurance and wealth management growth. 

Year-to-date MCV arrivals surpassed 20 million, representing a monthly average of 3.4 million visits. 

This reflects a 16% increase year-on-year and a 10% expansion month-on-month. Total monthly visitor arrivals to Hong Kong averaged 4.5 million in the first half of 2026, up 13% compared to the same period in 2025. 

Overall monthly arrivals exceeded the 5 million mark in February 2026, with June provisional data showing 7% month-on-month growth.

Jefferies noted a divergence between overseas investor perception and local market activity. 

Whilst Western investor sentiment remains cautious regarding Hong Kong's recovery, local market sentiment and corporate consensus remain positive based on stronger visitor foot traffic and elevated sales opportunities across the sector.