Older population in 2041 a threat to Hong Kong’s prosperity

People aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 13% in 2011 to 30% in 2041.

This striking statistic is among the more disturbing data uncovered by the latest Census & Statistics Department projections. The study estimates Hong Kong's population will increase to some 8.47 million in mid-2041 but at the slow average annual rate of 0.6%.

From mid-2011 to mid-2041, Hong Kong’s total population is expected to grow by only 1.4 million. The resident population is projected to rise from 7.07 million to 8.47 million at the projected average annual growth rate of 0.6%.

In this small population, the proportion aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 13% in 2011 to 30% in 2041. At the same time, the proportion of the population under 15 will fall gradually from 12% to 9%.

The ageing trend is also reflected in the population's increasing median age: from 41.7 in 2011, to 45.4 in 2021, and to 49.9 in 2041.

The ageing population can be understood by looking at the dependency ratio, or the number of people aged "under 15" and "65 and over" per 1,000 people aged 15-64. The ratio is projected to rise continuously from 333 in 2011, to 511 in 2026, and 645 in 2041.

Men will be in short supply in the future population. The number of males per 1,000 females is projected to fall noticeably: from 876 to 712.

An increase in life expectancy will also contribute to the trend of an older future population. For males at birth, life expectancy is expected to rise from 80.5 (provisional) in 2011 to 84.4 years in 2041, and for females from 86.7 to 90.8 years.

As the population ages, there will be a significant increase in the number of deaths, which will lower the average annual growth rate over the projection period's last 10 years to 0.4%.

The number of deaths is projected to increase from about 42,700 a year currently to about 82,400 in 2041. The increase in the number of deaths is mainly attributable to the growing proportion of older persons in the population despite a longer life expectancy.

The number of usual residents is projected to rise at an average annual rate of 0.6%, from 6.86 million in mid-2011 to 8.22 million in mid-2041, while the number of mobile residents will increase at a similar rate of 0.5% from 212,200 to 245,000.