Hong Kong property outlook for 2026 shaped by tightening supply

 Retail leads growth as office stabilises and logistics remains constrained.

Hong Kong’s commercial property market in 2026 is expected to hinge on limited supply and improving occupier activity across offices, logistics, and retail, according to a CBRE report.

In the office sector, Grade A availability in core districts is expected to tighten as high construction costs and limited development activity constrain new supply, with occupier demand continuing to concentrate in higher-quality buildings.

CBRE added that Grade A office rents in Hong Kong SAR’s Central CBD are on the cusp of recovery, as demand strengthens alongside a rebound in financial market activity.

Meanwhile, retail leasing conditions are projected to strengthen further through the year, with prime vacancy expected to tighten and rental growth to accelerate as new retailer entrants from Japan, Korea, and mainland China absorb available space.

However, the city will not see any new supply until 2028, one of the longest supply gaps in the region. Whilst leasing sentiment is expected to soften, the absence of new stock is expected to limit further increases in vacancy.

Across the region, CBRE said Asia-Pacific office supply is set to peak in 2026, with mainland China and India accounting for more than three-quarters of new Grade A completions, keeping regional supply elevated.