Macau September GGR tracking declines 14-18% Y-Y

It's the lowest since September 2012.

For the week that ended on September 21, it is believed that the average daily win was

~MOP880mn (including slot revenues) with the sequential improvement primarily driven by win rate normalization.

According to a research note from Nomura, meanwhile, factoring in the expected slowdown preceding the October Golden Week, it is estimated that September GGR could be ~MOP23.8-24.3bn (or down 14-18% y-y).

The report noted that it is in line with consensus expectation. Also, this would be the lowest monthly GGR figure since September 2012.

Here’s more from Nomura:

We estimate Sept mass revenues could be up ~10-14% y-y while VIP revenues could be down ~28-32% y-y, with VIP win rate up against an easier comp.

Looking out to Oct, our checks indicate room bookings are solid but there is uncertainty over the quality of the players. Even assuming a seasonal VIP ramp (albeit off of an expected low September base), Oct could still be down high teens y-y.

Market Share below: It appears hold normalized at Sands and SJM during the week, so we wouldn’t read too much into the market share.

A lack of positive catalysts through year-end (and Q1’15, which also lap a tough VIP comp) could keep investors on the sidelines, in our view.

We estimate current GGR trends imply 2014F GGR could be flattish vs. consensus range of -1 to 6%.