HKTDC raises export growth forecast to above 20%

AI-driven demand for electronics lifted exports by 36.2% in the first five months of 2026.

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council has raised its 2026 export growth forecast to above 20%, citing stronger-than-expected shipments and sustained demand for technology products.

Hong Kong’s exports rose 36.2% YoY in the first five months of 2026, driven mainly by the artificial intelligence-led electronics upcycle.

Electronics exports increased 44.3% during the period, with parts and components rising 50.8%. The sector accounts for more than 70% of Hong Kong’s total exports.

Growth was also recorded across several major markets. Exports to ASEAN climbed 47.8%, whilst shipments to the US, the Chinese Mainland, and Taiwan increased 46.8%, 39.1%, and 66.6%, respectively.

Exporter sentiment improved in the second quarter, with HKTDC’s Current Performance Index rising to 51.0 and its Expectation Index reaching 52.4. Readings above 50 indicate expansion and improving confidence.

HKTDC expects AI-related electronics demand to support export performance in the near term. However, growth may moderate later in the year because of a higher comparison base and easing price increases for semiconductor components.

The council also flagged Middle East tensions, energy-price volatility and uncertainty over US trade measures as key risks that could weaken global demand.