HKTDC forecasts exports to grow 8-9% in 2026

AI electronics demand was cited by 53.2% of exporters as the key growth driver.

Exports are forecast to grow between 8% and 9% in 2026 following a stronger-than-expected performance in 2025, according to figures released by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC). The projection forms part of the council’s annual Export Outlook report.

According to the HKTDC 4Q25 Export Confidence Index, 53.2% of exporters identified rising demand for AI and new-technology electronic consumer products as the main factor supporting growth in 2026. Electronics accounted for more than 70% of total export value.

The survey showed the Current Performance Index (CPI) at 51.4 and the Expectation Index at 51.9, both above the 50-point expansion threshold. It found that 42% of respondents prioritised the Chinese Mainland as their key market, followed by the rest of Asia at 30.3% and ASEAN at 18.9%.

Market expectations were strongest for the Chinese Mainland at 57.2 and ASEAN at 57.0, whilst expectations for the US declined to 38. The survey identified rising labour and production costs at 53.9%, logistics challenges at 38.8% and weaker overseas demand at 38.2% as potential risks to the outlook.