Agile management divulged these 4 fresh info

It eyes 10-15% growth in GFA.

Maybank Kim Eng met up with Agile management and these are the key takeaways from the meeting:

1) 10-15% YoY growth in GFA available for sale in 2013, according to preliminary plans. Agile’s management indicated that next year’s available for sale resources are around 10-15% higher than this year’s 6m sq m of GFA.

2) Expect some new launches in 1Q13, when residential supply is tight: Agile indicated that it still plans to launch its Zhongshan Shenchong project this month (our estimated ASP is CNY6,300/sq m), the number of new project launches in 2012 to 9, as opposed to 10 guided in interim briefing.

Looking ahead to 2013, we estimate there could be 5-9 new projects for launch. There should still be some launches in 1Q13—potentially Foshan Chancheng District, Majestic Garden Sanshui, and the residential portion of the Nanhai Xiqiao Commercial project, per management.

3) Cash collection ratio is in the 60’s% due to some buyers choosing payment instalment scheme. We estimate Agile’s end-2012 net gearing to be ~70%, similar to management guidance.

4) Still no word on whether Chairman Chen Zhuo Lin would be charged by the Hong Kong Police on alleged indecent assault, but backup plans in case the worst occurs with the loan amendments in place. Timing of an outcome of whether he will be charged is uncertain.

YTD, Agile’s share price is up 55%, underperforming the property sector’s average of 79%. With recent success of its delayed launch in Science City project in Guangzhou and a launch pipeline in 1Q13 where residential supply is tight, we expect Agile stock to continue to have upside from here.