Freight and logistics market to hit $218.75b by 2031 amidst mainland port pressure

It is poosed for a 3.78% CAGR as cross border trade reshapes regional flows.

Hong Kong’s freight and logistics market is forecast to reach $218.75b (US$27.95b) by 2031 from $181.63b (US$23.21b) in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.78%, according to Mordor Intelligence.

Freight transport remains the largest logistics function, holding a 58.45% share in 2025.

Courier, express, and parcel (CEP) services record the fastest growth at a 4.44% CAGR through 2031, driven by cross-border e-commerce demand and higher parcel volumes.

Road transport accounts for a 61.40% share of freight transport in 2025, whilst air freight is projected to grow at a 4.55% CAGR to 2031.

Maritime forwarding continues to dominate freight forwarding, with sea and inland waterways holding a 54.10% share in 2025 and growing at a 4.21% CAGR.

Domestic CEP services represent 65.25% of CEP demand in 2025, whilst international CEP services grow at a 4.62% CAGR through 2031.

Wholesale and retail trade leads end-user demand with a 35.42% revenue share in 2025 and records the fastest growth at a 4.08% CAGR to 2031.

Warehousing remains dominated by ambient storage at 89.40% share in 2025, whilst temperature-controlled facilities expand at a 4.33% CAGR.

Market growth is driven by cross-border e-commerce expansion, government infrastructure investment, and rising demand for temperature-controlled logistics.

It also reflects pressure from rising fuel and electricity costs, skilled labour shortages, and port-call bypass trends linked to mainland China ports.

Major developments include DSV’s acquisition of DB Schenker, CK Hutchison’s port divestment, and automation investments at Hong Kong International Airport.

Cainiao activated an RFID-enabled eHub at the airport, whilst SF Express completed a Hong Kong IPO to fund expansion.

Cold-chain logistics is gaining traction as UPS invests in a Hong Kong facility targeting pharmaceutical demand, whilst warehouse operators expand temperature-controlled capacity for vaccines, biologics, and specialty food imports.

The sector remains shaped by competition from mainland China ports, rising operational costs, and ongoing consolidation across global logistics providers.

(US$1 = HK$7.83)