Real private consumption to slow to below 2.0% YoY in 2014

The consumer has also experienced overstimulation.

It is expected that real private consumption will slow to below 2.0%y/y in 2014.

According to a research note from UBS, the consumer had been overly stimulated by the positive wealth effects as well as cheap and easy credit the past few years.

These pushed the private consumption-to-GDP ratio to 65% in 2013, the highest since 1970s.

Here's more from UBS:

What the numbers say: Private consumption slowed to 1.8%y/y in 2Q14 from 2.6% in 1Q14.

The general trend is down.

What they mean: Private consumption accounts for 65% of Hong Kong’s gross domestic product and thus the economy tracks very closely with consumption.

In particular, monthly retail sales often provide very important clues about the strength of GDP.