Hong Kong raises 2026 export growth forecast to 42%–47%

AI infrastructure and cloud computing are lifting technology trade.

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has raised its forecast for the city’s merchandise export growth in 2026 to 42%-47%, driven by stronger-than-expected global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related technologies.

“Demand for semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, telecommunications equipment and other advanced electronics expanded much faster than expected, providing substantial support to Hong Kong's exports,” said Bruce Pang, Director of Research at HKTDC.

Electronics remained the dominant growth engine, accounting for approximately 80% of the city's total exports in the first eight months of 2026.

HKTDC said electronics exports rose 52.8% year on year, significantly outpacing overall export growth. Major markets included the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN and the US.

“Particularly notable was the strong performance of items related to growing investments in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, data centres and next-generation digital technologies worldwide,” the council said.

AI-related electronics now account for an increasingly significant share of Hong Kong's exports, whilst exports of conventional electronic parts and components have also continued to perform strongly.

Wing Chu, Deputy Director of Research at HKTDC, said manufacturing networks across the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN economies remain active, whilst export performance across traditional industries has remained stable.

ASEAN continues to be one of Hong Kong's most dynamic export destinations, whilst exporter sentiment towards both ASEAN and the Chinese Mainland remains positive.

Regional trade flows across Asia have remained strong amidst the ongoing technology upcycle, with the Chinese Mainland's high-technology manufacturing sector remaining in expansion territory.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong's exports to the US rose 63.4% year on year in the first eight months of 2026 despite additional US trade measures.

In July, the US imposed an additional 12.5% Section 301 tariff on imports from several trading partners, including the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong.

Hong Kong's exports are increasingly concentrated in high-value, technology-intensive products such as integrated circuits, computer parts and advanced telecommunications equipment.

HKTDC said these products are progressively replacing traditional lower-value, bulk merchandise as key contributors to export growth.

The shift towards higher-value goods is also changing Hong Kong's trade logistics, with products such as semiconductors and luxury goods increasing reliance on air freight.

Hong Kong's air cargo network and land transport connectivity with advanced manufacturing clusters in Southern China have strengthened its role in high-value international trade and supply chain management, according to HKTDC.

The HKTDC Export Confidence Index remained above the neutral 50-point threshold in the third quarter, with the Current Performance Index at 51.8 and the Expectation Index at 51.3.

HKTDC expects exports to maintain solid momentum through the remainder of 2026, supported by resilient global demand for technology products and robust manufacturing and trade activity across the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN.

However, businesses continue to face geopolitical tensions, energy and commodity market volatility and rising protectionist measures.

Kenneth Lee, Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory at HKTDC, said international consumption has remained relatively resilient in recent months despite these uncertainties.

“As a result, sectors such as clothing, watches and clocks, and jewellery have continued to deliver stable export performance alongside the strong growth seen in technology-related industries,” Lee said.