4Q GDP likely to edge u 1.5-2.5%: Moody's Analytics

Still sitting below trend.

According to Moody's Analytics, activity at Hong Kong's port jumped in January, but this is largely a result of the timing of the Lunar New Year. Ports and factories shut when the holiday fell in January 2012, while this year’s celebration fell in February.

As a result, there were two more working days and greater production and trade during January. These trends play out at the start of every year, and are expected to be reversed in February, when port and factories shut for the festivities.

Here's more from Moody's Analytics:

The monthly trade shortfall will likely go back to about HK$40 billion to HK$50 billion in coming months

Now that the Lunar New Year is over, Hong Kong’s trade will recover on the back of solid global demand. The Chinese economy, which makes up more than 50% of Hong Kong’s exports and imports, is expected to grow about 8% again in 2013.

A weaker Japanese yen is also lifting the Japanese outlook, while the U.S. is growing stronger and euro zone tension is easing.

The Lunar New Year makes forecasting challenging around this time, but exports and GDP appear to be heading in the right direction.

Fourth quarter GDP data out later this week are expected to show a 1.5% q/q or 2.5% y/y expansion, which is below trend, but better than previous quarters. We look for 3.4% growth in 2013.