Retail sales hit $345b as market signals 'two-speed' recovery

E-commerce and F&B resilience support early market stabilisation.

Hong Kong’s retail market showed early signs of stabilisation as total sales reached approximately $345b in January to November 2025, up 0.4% year-on-year.

Monthly sales turned positive from May, ending 14 months of contraction and signalling tentative stabilisation in consumer spending, a Knight Frank report said.

The sector continued to come under competitive pressure from cross-border consumption and online sales last year. Online sales jumped from 6.3% of total retail in 2020 to 9.5% in the first eleven months of 2025, driven by e-commerce.

"On the other hand, credit card spending by Hong Kong residents also illustrated the shift of spending behaviour," the report said.

Whilst total credit card transaction value almost doubled from $591b in 2020 to $1.02t in 2024, the share of domestic spending fell from 87.3% to 68.2%. Overseas spending increased from 12.7% to 31.8% over the same period.

Total visitor arrivals surged 12.2% YoY to 12.8 million in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, whilst per-capita spending for overnight visitors fell to $5,299—an 11.8% drop from 2019 levels.

Mainland Chinese visitors, a primary driver of the sector, saw an even steeper decline, with per-capita spending down 21.9% compared to the first quarter of 2019.

Separately, the food and beverages (F&B) sector showed resilience, with sales averaging $27.3b between 2023 and Q3 2025.

The market is predicted to record 5% to 10% growth for prime street shops, on the back of strong street visibility, resilient mainland visitor demand, and limited new supply.