Home sales fall nearly 54% in Q3 after strong first half

The drop should not be seen as a deterioration in market fundamentals, said CBRE.

Only 3,240 first-hand residential transactions were recorded in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, representing a 53.7% quarter-on-quarter decline, according to CBRE.

The drop follows a strong first half, when the primary market recorded average monthly sales of about 2,000 units. 

First-hand residential transactions are expected to reach about 4,000 to 5,000 units in Q4. 

Nevertheless, total new home sales for 2026 are projected to remain broadly in line with fiscal year 2025 levels at around 20,000 transactions.

CBRE said the moderation in transaction volume should not be interpreted as a deterioration in market fundamentals.

“Over the past two years, developers have successfully reduced a substantial portion of their unsold inventory,” said Eddie Kwok, executive director of valuation and advisory services at CBRE Hong Kong.

“Going forward, developers are likely to adopt a more balanced sales strategy, optimising both pricing and sales volume in line with their funding requirements and prevailing market conditions,” he added.

Meanwhile, the Rating and Valuation Department’s residential property price index edged up by only 0.2% in October 2026, suggesting that the market remains in a consolidation phase.

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years in September and signalled the possibility of another rate hike later this year.

At the same time, recent corrections in Hong Kong’s equity market may weigh on investor sentiment, whilst tighter controls on outbound investment from mainland China could curb the inflow of capital into Hong Kong’s residential property market.

CBRE said the potential for further price appreciation appears limited in the near term, with residential property prices having risen by 7% year to date.

Against this backdrop, residential property prices are expected to remain broadly stable in Q4.