Home transactions fall 40% in Q3 as buyers adopt wait-and-see stance

Price declines were recorded across market segments in the third quarter.

Hong Kong residential transactions fell sharply in the third quarter of 2026, with monthly deal volumes dropping from an average of more than 7,000 cases in the second quarter to around 4,000 between July and September, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

A total of 13,242 residential transactions were recorded in the third quarter, down 40% quarter-on-quarter. Year-to-date transactions reached 54,052 cases for the first nine months of the year, up 18% year-on-year.

Home prices also softened. Rating and Valuation Department data showed the overall residential price index declined 0.8% in July and August combined, though it still recorded 7% growth for the first eight months of 2026.

Cushman & Wakefield's own mid-and-small-size units price index showed a mild 0.1% quarter-on-quarter drop, with a cumulative year-to-date increase of 7.7%.

Price declines were recorded across market segments in the third quarter. City One Shatin, representing the mass market, fell 5.7% quarter-on-quarter. Taikoo Shing, representing the mid-market, dropped 0.6%. Residence Bel-Air, representing the luxury segment, retreated 3.8%.

Cushman & Wakefield attributed the slowdown to the sustained release of purchasing power over the past year, tighter cross-border capital controls from mainland China, and the US Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate increase in September. 

Rosanna Tang, deputy managing director and head of research at Cushman and Wakefield Hong Kong, said the slowdown reflected a more cautious stance amongst homebuyers amidst shifting interest rate expectations and heightened external uncertainties. She revised the firm's full-year residential transaction forecast to around 67,000 to 68,000 cases.

"As for pricing, should the US Fed rate further increase in Q4, the residential market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with 2026 annual home prices likely to fluctuate in a narrow range near plus 7%," Tang said.