Forecast model revamped for Hong Kong's housing needs

2 concepts were tried to be adopted.

According to a release, the Long Term Housing Strategy Steering Committee held its fourth meeting, reviewing a proposed demand forecast model for Hong Kong’s housing needs.

Briefing the media after the meeting, Secretary for Transport & Housing Prof Anthony Cheung said the committee tried to come up with a more dynamic forecast model than the previous one, which was adopted over a decade ago in the previous long-term housing strategy report.

“We hope that our model will be sensitive to different social and economic scenarios. One important thing is that we mainly focus on the need to house the local population, we do not think just catering external demand is a priority.

“Of course, we have to be pragmatic because external investment demand is a factor but the main purpose of our long-term housing strategy is to look after the residential demands of the local population."

It tried to adopt two concepts in this model – the stock concept and the flow concept.

“For stock, we mean the existing number of households. Some of the households must be inadequately housed and the inadequacy has to be addressed in any demand forecast.

“The flow concept refers to changes over a period of time - changes that may arise from household changes, for example, split families, new household formation as well as the need to house families or people arising from redevelopment - another change as a result of economic and social changes.”

Prof Cheung said the committee will produce a consultative document on the long-term housing strategy review by the middle of the year, adding that a more detailed analysis under this model will be ready within the coming few months.

“Our survey on sub-divided flats will also be completed around May. That will tie in very nicely with our forecast analysis.”