Slight budge of 6% in Macau's average daily revenues in August

Post-World Cup, it's an improvement.

Average daily table revenues in Macau gaming improved to HK$916 mn for the period 1 -11 August.

According to a research note from Barclays, this is an improvement of 6% compared to the post World Cup period in July (14-31 July) that saw HK$861 mn a day in table revenues.

The report also said that August GGR could see 0.7% y/y decline: If it is assumed that the rest of the month continues to see HK$916 mn per day and add a slot revenue full month assumption of HK$1.25bn, August total gross gaming revenue would be HK$29.6bn.

This would imply a GGR decline of 0.7% y/y.

Here's more from Barclays:

This, while an improvement from the -4% y/y decline seen in June and July, is behind our expectations for mid- to high-single-digit y/y GGR growth for 2H14.

VIP softness remains, mass revenue growth picked up: VIP softness remained and we believe is the main reason behind the lack of overall GGR growth; we believe the soft VIP demand could potentially be due to the current environment in China which is putting corrupt activities under greater scrutiny.

Based on channel checks, we believe mass table revenue y/y growth has picked up from the 17% growth seen in July.

We believe our 7% 2H14 GGR growth estimate could see downside if weak VIP trends continue.

In October, gaming revenues could also potentially see temporary disruption on implementation of the smoking ban, and if Unionpay shops move shop locations.

We believe these factors could cause stock price volatility in 2H, and that it could take till 2015’s casino openings before a more significant acceleration of GGR growth resumes.