Macau average daily table revenue declines 17% w/w mid-July

It's worse than was expected.

Average daily table revenue in Macau gaming softened to HK$775mn for the period of 14-20 July, representing a decline of 17% w/w compared with the previous period (7-13 July), which saw HK$929mn in daily revenue.

According to a research note from Barclays, this was worse than it had expected as it had assumed that the stronger revenue for 7-13 July would have continued after the World Cup matches ended.

Also, mass revenue momentum continued to remain strong, but there were mixed trends across properties on VIP volumes.

Barclays said that based on the current runrate, the July GGR could see a 7.7% y/y decline.

Here's more from Barclays:

If we assume the rest of the month continues to see HK$814mn per day (the current month-to-date run rate) and add our slot revenue full-month assumption of HK$1.2bn, July total gross gaming revenue (GGR) could be at HK$26.4bn, which would imply a GGR decline of 7.7% y/y and would be similar to the GGR for June.

With the more volatile VIP volumes but continued strength in mass momentum, we continue to favour the more mass-exposed players Sands China and Melco Crown the most.

We still like Galaxy as well because we believe it could be the earliest to open a new casino in 2015.

Of the US listed stocks, our US gaming analyst, Felicia Hendrix, favours Las Vegas Sands the most.

Table-only market share data for 1-20 July (July MTD): Compared with June, Sands China, Wynn and Galaxy gained market share for July MTD while SJM, MGM and MPEL saw lower market share.

Sands China (1928.HK, Overweight): July MTD market share was at 22.7%, higher than the 21.5% seen in June.

Galaxy (27.HK, Overweight): July MTD market share was at 22.5%, a further gain than the 21.6% seen in June.

Wynn (1128.HK, Equal Weight): July MTD market share was at 10.1%, higher than the 9.4% seen in June.

MPEL (1928.HK, Overweight): July MTD market share was at 11.5%, slightly lower than the 11.5% seen in June.

SJM (880.HK, Overweight): July MTD market share was at 24.9%, lower than the 25.6% seen in June.

MGM (2282.HK, Overweight): July MTD market share was at 8.3%, lower than the 10.1% seen in June.

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