Hong Kong shoppers to spend one third of wallet across border: Euromonitor

Share going to mainland China and Macau is forecast to reach 35% by 2028.

Hong Kong residents are projected to send about 31% of their spending across the border in 2026, and the share is rising, leaving retailers to win them back.

Euromonitor International senior consultant Prudence Lai said the share going to mainland China and Macau is forecast to reach about 35% by 2028, speaking at the Retail Asia Summit 2026 in Hong Kong.

Lai said residents’ spending at home is forecast to be lower in 2028 than in 2018.

Customers compare price, service and experience with Shenzhen every weekend, so retailers compete across the Greater Bay Area and not only within Hong Kong.

To win back spending, retailers must focus on what Hong Kong does best: trust, service, and experience, Lai said.

She called Hong Kong a “mature, ageing, slower-growth market” where growth will come from taking share and being more relevant to customers.

Hong Kong’s real GDP growth is projected at about 2.1% a year through 2040, against 3.9% for the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region and 3.0% globally.

Meanwhile, consumer expenditure in Hong Kong is projected to grow 2.4% a year, against 3.6% in APAC.

Lai also noted that 38% of Hong Kong’s population will be aged 65 or over by 2040, up from 25% today, raising demand for wellness, longevity, skin health, and preventative care.

Retail sales were about $61.0b (HK$479b) in 2019 and fell back to about $53.5b (HK$420b) in 2025, which she called the “new baseline”.

Euromonitor forecasts organic growth of about 3% a year from 2026, reaching about $58.5b (HK$459b) in 2028.

Tourism offsets some of the outflow, but Lai said visitor spending on shopping is projected to be flat in 2026 at about $5.8b (HK$45.5b). It will then grow steadily from 2027, reaching about $9.0b (HK$71b) by 2031.

Shopping’s share of visitor spending fell from 42% in 2018 to about 25% in 2026 and is projected to recover to only 28% by 2031.

Mainland China is projected to account for 73% of inbound spending by 2031, but Lai said visitors are spending more on dining, culture and experiences.

Retailers that win visitor spending will be those that connect retail to experiences, Lai said. The tourism board is looking to diversify the city’s source markets.

Consumers justify each purchase on value, with one exception: wellness.

In Euromonitor’s survey, wellness ranks at or near the top of categories where consumers plan to spend more, with 29% planning to increase spending in 2026 against 18% for entertainment, she said.

Consumers are “naturally more willing to spend their money on wellness-related items” than on entertainment or essentials, Lai said.

She added  that stores win on seamless purchase, experience and trust, whilst online wins on selection and access to products not sold locally.

She set out three priorities: stores as fulfilment and service hubs, closing the trust gap online, and running loyalty and after-sales as one system.

E-commerce rose from about 10% of retail sales in 2019 to a projected 20% in 2026, a figure that differs from government data because Euromonitor includes cross-border sales.

Amongst Gen Z respondents, 42% follow or like brands on social media, against 36% of all respondents.

A growing number of Hong Kong consumers, especially younger ones, want gamified retail or more interaction with brands through entertainment, Lai said.

She said livestreaming and shoppable content will gain importance in Hong Kong as shoppers move to where consumers are entertained, as in China.

She also cited Euromonitor’s 2025 industry survey, in which 58% of APAC respondents named artificial intelligence (AI) as the technology that will most affect their business over the next five years.

Brands, products, and loyalty programmes should be machine-readable, she said, with product content, reviews, and question-and-answer sections helping generative AI and social platforms discover brands.

She said generative engine optimisation is becoming increasingly important alongside search engine optimisation.

Lai’s three takeaways were to win the intentional customer through wellness, to improve product content for AI and social platforms, and to rethink the role of each channel across online and offline.

Hong Kong’s retail growth to 2030 looks set to be more deliberate, and it will go to retailers who “act decisively”, she added.

(US$1 = HK$7.85)