HK's exports set to grow by 4% in 2025

Electronics exports grew by 13.5% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024.

Hong Kong's exports are projected to grow by 4% in 2025, continuing the positive trajectory seen throughout 2024, according to data released by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) Research.

In its Export Outlook 2025 report, HKTDC noted that electronics exports grew by 13.5% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024, with demand expected to remain robust, particularly for artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled systems.

Irina Fan, director of HKTDC Research, noted that consumer sales will likely benefit from the introduction of a new generation of AI-integrated smartphones, computers, and other digital devices.

However, the HKTDC Research noted potential challenges, including US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to impose higher tariffs on goods imported to the US. If implemented, these tariffs could disrupt global trade flows and accelerate trade diversion processes, potentially impacting Hong Kong’s export activities over the next 12 months.

Despite these concerns, HKTDC said mainland China’s trade levels have been resilient, with its share of global exports rising from 12.7% six years ago to 14.1% in 2023. The HKTDC Research suggested that the proposed US tariff regime might be an opening bid in a series of negotiations rather than being an absolute certainty.

Geopolitical uncertainties and the threat of tariff hikes have contributed to more cautious sentiment amongst exporters, reflected in the HKTDC’s Export Confidence Index for the fourth quarter of 2024. 

Both the Current Performance Index and the Expectation Index saw declines, dropping to 50.3 in the fourth from 52.6 in the third quarter, and to 50 from 51.4, respectively.

To counter potential tariff impacts, HKTDC Research said exporters may accelerate their shipping schedules in the first half of 2025, anticipating more intense activity during this period, followed by a slowdown in the latter half of the year.