HK trade up 15.2% in Sept

But BBVA Research is wary over a worrying trend taking on.

BBVA Research notes that Hong Kong’s September trade data was stronger than expected, with exports rising by 15.2% y/y (consensus: 10.0% y/y) and imports by 14.9% y/y (consensus: 9.0% y/y), well above their August outturns of 0.6% y/y and 0.9% y/y, respectively.

The improvement in exports, it said, was broad-based, with exports to China rising by 25.5% y/y from 8.5% y/y the previous month, consistent with the improved outturns of China’s exports and activity indicators announced last week.

Given the weak external environment, however, BBVA said it remain cautious about whether the September data reflects a new trend, as evidenced by weak data in Singapore and Thailand.

Here's more from BBVA:

Singapore's IP for September disappoints

Singapore’s industrial production for September fell by -2.5% y/y (consensus: 1.8% y/y) on weakness in electronics and pharmaceuticals production. The outturn, though notoriously volatile, follows a disappointing September exports outturn (3.4% y/y), and highlights the ongoing stress in Singapore’s economy due to the global slowdown. We expect the economy to remain under pressure in the coming months, though domestic demand, driven by a tight labor market (unemployment is low at 2.0%), may partially offset the weak external outlook.

Thailand's industrial production accelerates its fall

Thailand's industrial output in September fell by -13.7% y/y (consensus: -9.6% y/y) from a revised -11.2% y/y in August. The decline was the fourth consecutive monthly fall in the IP index. Though September's export data released yesterday surprised to the upside, breaking three months of declines, the improvement appears to be temporary and the outlook for manufacturing and exports in Thailand in the coming months looks subdued.