Growth momentum in ASEAN's largest three economies slowing

Hopefully 2H15 will provide growth boost.

With the exception of the Philippines and Vietnam, most indicators show growth momentum slowing across ASEAN in
2015.

According to a research note from HSBC Global Research, Indonesia, Malaysia, and to a smaller extent Thailand, are still suffering from sluggish commodity prices. Just recently, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) lowered its forecast to 3.0% for 2015 from 3.8%, as exports continue to drag.

Consensus points to a boost to growth in 2H15 as global momentum hopefully picks up.

Here's more from HSBC Global Research:

We are a bit more cautious on the global outlook and think that ASEAN’s externally oriented economies (Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia) may face growth obstacles from tepid exports. As we mention, however, it is slowing private consumption in many parts of the region that concerns us the most.

Inflation remains tame in most countries, although we continue to see reflation risks stemming from higher food
prices (potentially exacerbated by El Niño) and rising oil prices. Unfortunately, for ASEAN, prices of most
commodity exports have yet to see a rebound.

Accordingly, we think that policymakers should currently focus on the growth side of the equation.

As for the region’s central banks, Bank Indonesia (BI) held rates on 19 June. Policy statements suggested no real easing bias – instead, BI continues to pursue a wide array of macroprudential measures, though we have yet to see their implementation.

We believe such measures will provide a limited boost to the Indonesian consumer and, as a result, BI may have to resort to a rate cut in 3Q15.