Exports falls to 0.7% in Q1

But there’s still hope.

According to UBS, exports dipped to 0.7%y/y in 1Q14, consistent with the generally weak Chinese export growth during the quarter.

But we expect trade to improve somewhat going forward.

Here’s more from UBS:

Exports of goods and services were 212% of nominal GDP, and while much of these exports are not actually produced in Hong Kong, the economy does provide shipment, logistics, finance and services to the sector.

Thus trade is a key driver of employment and income, and by extension consumption and investment.
Exports should continue to improve gradually in 1H14, driven by better final demand from the developed world. 

What’s new in 2014 is the possibility that Europe could finally emerge as a source of growth.