September trade numbers may have eased to 6.2% y/y for exports and 11.4% for imports.
According to Standard Chartered, downside risks loom for Hong Kong as low growth in the West and soft landing in China continues.
Here’s more from StanChart:
In view of the increasingly challenging external demand picture, September trade numbers (to be announced on 25 October) are likely to extend the recent moderating trend, to 6.2% y/y for exports and 11.4% for imports (versus August numbers of 6.8% and 14.1%, respectively). If true, this means that the overall trade deficit should have widened slightly to HKD 42bn from HKD 35bn prior.
A prolonged period of low growth in the West, together with a soft landing in China, could mean further downside risk to export growth in the coming months, if not quarters. This should translate into a bigger drag on overall economic growth, which is only likely to be offset by still-strong domestic demand.
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