Hong Kong life insurers face slowdown as 2025 gains distort growth: Jefferies

Jefferies expects muted near-term results even as customer demand for protection and savings products holds firm.

Major Hong Kong life insurers, including AIA, Prudential, and FWD, face a temporary growth slowdown in upcoming financial reports, but long-term consumer demand remains strong.

Near-term revenue expansion across the sector is expected to look depressed due to comparison against last year's exceptionally high baseline, according to an equity research outlook by Jefferies.

For example, market consensus for AIA projects third-quarter value of new business to be flat quarter-on-quarter and down 3% year-on-year.

However, underlying market demand remains solid. Recent third-quarter data from HSBC—Hong Kong's largest life insurer—shows that customer acquisition numbers have stabilised, whilst Hang Seng Bank achieved record-high monthly customer growth.

These trends indicate that regulatory concerns have not weakened consumer appetite for wealth and insurance products.

As an industry benchmark, HSBC's core metrics point to overall market stability. Insurance annual new premiums held steady year-on-year at $1.4b, whilst total group profit stock grew 9.6% year-on-year to $17.2b.

Excluding the sale of its Singapore business, HSBC's total profit stock rose 17.8%, with economic headwinds creating just a minor $400m drag.

Recognised quarterly profit releases also increased to $500m, up from $400m a year earlier.

Together with Hang Seng Bank, the group holds a dominant 29% share of direct new business premiums and 22% of total in-force premiums in Hong Kong.

Whilst top-line growth figures may appear muted in the near term, underlying balance sheets and customer demand remain resilient.