HDI warns Victoria Peak defences may fail under extreme weather

Existing safeguards cut landslide risk by over 75% but face new limits.

HDI Risk Consulting released a comprehensive analysis of climate change risks facing Hong Kong’s Victoria Peak, warning that extreme weather is pushing the landmark’s safety conditions beyond historical limits.

As part of its Iconic Landmarks Series, the subsidiary of insurer HDI Global used data-driven modelling to show how rising temperatures and intense rainfall threaten the site, which attracts up to seven million visitors each year. 

The report identifies geological instability on the northern slopes, consisting of weathered granite that becomes unstable when saturated. 

This risk is heightened by record-breaking rainfall, such as the 158.1 mm per hour recorded in September 2023. 

Analysts noted that whilst government mitigation has reduced landslide risks by more than 75% since the 1970s, extreme events now threaten to bypass these existing defences.

The analysis also forecasts a significant increase in heat stress. 

Under a "business as usual" scenario, maximum temperatures at the Peak are projected to reach 41.28°C by 2100. 

This rising heat is expected to cause ecological damage, including premature leaf loss in subtropical vegetation, which then creates flammable fuel for wildfires during dry months. 

Such conditions are likely to alter visitor behaviour, pushing crowds toward cooler morning and evening hours whilst increasing health risks on steep trails.

Michael Ahn, CEO of HDI Global Hong Kong, stated that identifying these exposures early allows the city to strengthen its resilience before major disruptions occur.