AIA misses forecasts as China reforms weigh on growth

Jefferies upheld its forecast as Hong Kong performance eased regulatory concerns.

AIA Group’s new business growth in September eased concerns over a regulatory-driven slowdown in Hong Kong, despite a 5% decline in its third-quarter 2026 Value of New Business (VONB).

The insurer’s shares rose 5% following the results, as investors responded to stronger growth in Hong Kong and across the group in September, according to Jefferies.

AIA Hong Kong’s VONB grew 20% in August and September combined, showing that customer demand remained strong despite regulatory changes. The tough comparison with the previous year was largely limited to July 2025.

AIA Group’s VONB also grew 25% in September 2026, supporting expectations of continued growth in the fourth quarter.

Jefferies said the third-quarter decline was partly due to an industry-wide one-off impact in China from bancassurance reforms.

The analyst said the weaker performance was better received by investors than a slowdown in Hong Kong, which could have raised concerns over cross-border sales.

AIA’s third-quarter VONB fell 5%, slightly below the 4% decline expected by analysts and the 3% decline forecast by Jefferies.

The decline followed strong growth in the previous year, when group VONB rose 25%, and Hong Kong grew 40%, creating a higher comparison base.

Jefferies maintained its full-year 2026 VONB forecast, saying the results provided a clearer picture of the insurer’s growth outlook. It expects a lower comparison base in the fourth quarter to support short-term growth, alongside sustained medium-term expansion.