Hong Kong sees up to 3.5% growth in 2026 as trade tensions ease

Exports of services are expected to rise as visitor arrivals climb.

Hong Kong’s economy is forecast to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2026, on the back of easing global trade tensions and continued expansion in major economies.

In his 2026-27 Budget Speech, Financial Secretary Paul Chan said exports of goods are expected to sustain growth.  Exports of services will also increase due to higher visitor arrivals and demand for financial services.

Meanwhile, domestic demand is expected to grow steadily, underpinned by a stable labour market and rising household incomes. However, the international environment remains complex.

“A slower‑than‑expected pace of US rate cuts could hamper the optimism currently underpinning the global financial market,” Chan said.

The financial secretary noted that inflation is projected to remain moderate, with underlying inflation forecast at 1.7% and headline inflation at 1.8% this year.

Looking ahead, the government expects the economy to expand by an average of about 3% per year in real terms from 2027 to 2030, with underlying inflation averaging about 2% annually.

“This year marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan,” Chan said, adding that the government will continue to participate in the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and advance projects such as the Northern Metropolis.