Developers cut prices to revive primary home sales, JLL says

Tighter mainland controls on cross-border capital flows slowed transactions by mid-year.

The primary residential market has regained momentum as developers adopt more competitive pricing to capture buyer demand amidst interest rate uncertainty, according to JLL’s report.

JLL said transaction volumes are expected to accelerate through the rest of 2026, but pricing is likely to stay disciplined as developers continue to prioritise reducing inventory.

The market averaged about 2,000 monthly transactions in the first half, then slowed by mid-year amidst the mainland’s tighter controls on cross-border capital flows, according to Land Registry data.

Sales fell to a seasonal low of 796 in July before recovering to 942 in September and 1,502 in October, as developers returned with major project launches.

Rents, which have trended upward since December 2024, have also supported demand from end-users and investors.

JLL said developers are launching below secondary market levels to clear stock before macroeconomic sentiment shifts.

“The mass residential sector is poised for a distinct ‘volume-led, price-capped’ dynamic through the end of the year,” said Cathie Chung, Senior Director of Research at JLL.

She said full-year price growth should remain in line with JLL’s forecast of 5 to 10% and described the late-2026 rally as a healthy, liquidity-driven stabilisation.

Land Registry data points to a strong fourth-quarter peak in primary transactions, whilst JLL does not expect it to spark a sharp rally in mass residential prices.