Analysts see support for home prices

Firms cite launches, lower HIBOR.

The residential property market is likely to remain supported this year, with JLL and CBRE pointing to active primary sales, lower borrowing costs, and continued investor interest despite external risks.

JLL said February’s sharp rise in home prices was mainly driven by strong stock market performance and optimism about future property trends. It added that some secondary-market owners raised asking prices during the Lunar New Year period, which further lifted housing prices.

Looking ahead, JLL said a correction in the stock market in March could cause some secondary-home seekers to hold back, leading to lower transaction volumes in the secondary market.

However, it said the primary market remained active, with about 1,600 units transacted in March as mainland Chinese buyers stayed active and developers maintained their launch pace.

CBRE said tensions in the Middle East had not had any immediate impact on Hong Kong’s residential market. But it warned that prolonged tensions, if they push up oil prices, inflation, and interest rates, would weigh on the local property sector.

The agency added that falling HIBOR could continue to support demand, noting that the rate has dropped by more than 100 basis points since the fourth quarter of last year.

Lower borrowing costs should encourage buyer participation and help support home prices, it said.

CBRE maintained its earlier forecast for Hong Kong residential prices to rise by about 3% to 5% in 2026.

It also said the sector could attract more investors, citing its relative resilience compared with other asset classes.