Macau's gross gaming revenues down 3.7% in June

However, it's better than what was expected.

Data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau show that Macau’s gross gaming revenue for June 2014 was HK$26.422 bn (MOP27.215 bn), down 3.7% y/y.

According to a research note from Barclays, this is slightly better than its expectations, since it was looking for a 5.6% y/y decline.

The report noted that while by-segment data is likely only to be released early next week, Barclays estimates that VIP revenues saw a double-digit percentage decline y/y, and was the main reason driving the overall y/y revenue decline.

Here's more from Barclays:

We believe it is also possible that mass revenues might have seen a marginal slowdown due to the impact from the World Cup, but we expect little impact and the impact to only be transient during World Cup.

Accumulated gross gaming revenue for 1H14 is now at HK$187.5 bn (MOP193.1 bn), +12.6% y/y. This is slightly lower than our 12.9% full year 2014 forecast.

There is downside risk to our full-year estimate if VIP continues to see such significant y/y declines in coming months.

However, with 1) VIP slowdown trends already visible since April (and even more obvious starting second week of June), and 2) average Macau gaming stock prices down 14% YTD (Hang Seng Index flat), we believe current stock valuations at 12.6x already factor in the VIP slowdown.