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Here's why Asian exports are languishing in the last 3 years

Average growth just hit 3.8%.

It has been noted that export growth in Asia has averaged just 3.8% over the past three years compared with the historical trend of 12.8% over the 1992-2007 period.

According to a research note from Morgan Stanley Research, indeed, it estimates that if export growth were to have followed its long-term historical trend, exports levels would be 56% higher than they are currently.

Morgan Stanley said it believes there are three reasons for the weakness in Asia's exports: weaker global GDP and trade growth, subdued commodity prices, and loss of export competitiveness.

Here's more from Morgan Stanley Research:

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1) Weaker global GDP and trade growth: Post the credit crisis, global trade growth has underperformed global GDP growth, which itself has been weaker due to the deleveraging in developed markets. In this regard, the region’s exports to Europe and Japan have been the weakest.

2) Subdued commodity prices: Commodity prices have also been weak over the past three years. This will particularly hurt Indonesia and Malaysia – the two net commodity exporters in the region.

3) Loss of export competitiveness: An appreciating AXJ REER is affecting the region’s external competitiveness. This, coupled with weaker demographic trends and slower productivity growth, will mean that the region likely faces rising challenges to expand its export market share.
 

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