Economy expands 3.8% in Q3

Thanks to the surge in exports and expansion in domestic demand.

Hong Kong has reported a 3.8% expansion in its real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025.

According to Acting Government Economist Cecilia Lam, “the robust performance was driven by a continued surge in exports and sustained expansion in domestic demand.”

On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP rose 0.7% further in Q3.

Total goods exports grew 12.1% year-on-year in real terms, thanks to strong demand for electronics-related products and buoyant regional trade flows in Asia. Exports of services also expanded by 6.3% in real terms, mainly supported by sustained increases in inbound tourism and cross-boundary traffic, and cross-border financial service activities.

Domestically, private consumption expenditure rose 2.1% year-on-year in real terms, reflecting the continued recovery of the local consumption market.

“Overall investment expenditure saw an accelerated increase of 4.3% in real terms over a year earlier, alongside the economic expansion and stabilisation in the residential property market. Flat prices showed a more visible pick-up and rentals remained solid,” the government said.

Meanwhile, the labour market softened in Q3, with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rising to 3.9% from 3.5% in the preceding quarter.

Lam said the economy is expected to have further solid growth for the rest of 2025.

“Sustained moderate growth of the global economy in the near term, coupled with easing China-US trade tensions of late and persistent demand for electronics-related products should lend support to Hong Kong’s exports of goods,” she said.

“Continued increases in inbound tourism and vibrant financial market activities should provide further impetus to exports of services,” she added.

The renewed US interest rate cuts since September are also conducive to asset market sentiment.

Taking into account the actual out-turn in the first three quarters of this year and the near-term outlook, Hong Kong’s real GDP growth forecast for 2025 as a whole has been revised up to 3.2% from 2% to 3% in the August round of review.

Meanwhile, the forecasts for underlying and headline consumer price inflation rates this year have been revised down to 1.2% and 1.5% respectively, from 1.5% and 1.8% in the August round of review.