Home sale transactions to plunge below 4,000 units per month

This is due to the new flat 15% stamp duty on non-first time home buyers.

The Hong Kong government imposed a new flat 15% stamp duty on non-first time buyers of residential units on 5 November, 2016. Colliers reported that it expects growth in residential prices to slow down and the number of transactions to drop below 4,000 units per month in coming months.

"However, we have not seen significant adjustment pressure on property prices yet. In the primary market, developers should offer new incentives to potential buyers to cover the additional stamp duty cost," it said.

Here's more from Colliers:

In the secondary market, owners have strong holding power and are not under pressure to sell. Hence, we only expect a moderate price adjustment of 5%-10% for the next 12 months, due to high new supply of about 93,000 units in total over the next four years.

We have observed investors' interest in property market segments other than residential picking up since the new stamp duty was introduced. The value of car parking spaces has been rising fast, in some instances reaching over HKD4 million.

However, we believe many car parking spaces now exceed long-run fair value and so are likely to remain stable for the next 12 months.

Industrial properties with a capital value of under HK$10m have already attracted more interest from potential investors.

Looking forward, we expect investment interest to shift also from residential property to the strata-title office market. This supports our forecast that prices of Grade A office property will rise by 10% in 2017.