Surge in exports to Mainland China boosts Hong Kong’s trade

The trade forecast was revised upward from a maximum of 6% to 11% amidst export growth.

Hong Kong’s trade forecast has been upgraded to rise between 9% and 11% in 2024, compared to the initial estimation of 4% to 6%, the Hong Kong Trade and Development Council (HKTDC) reported.

This upgrade is due to a 12.5% year-on-year (YoY) increase in exports for 5M 2024, driven by a surge in electronic goods orders, which comprise 70% of Hong Kong’s total export value.

Exporters also showed optimism towards Mainland and other ASEAN markets. From January to May, Hong Kong's exports to Mainland China rose 21.1% YoY, while exports to ASEAN countries increased by 19.8%. Industrial inputs and intermediate goods made up about 90% of the total exports in both cases.

In terms of confidence in demand from Hong Kong’s key markets, exporters were most optimistic about sustained demand from Mainland China (up from 39.6 to 60.5) and the United States (up from 34.5 to 53.6). Scores for the European Union, ASEAN, and other markets remained above 52.0, with only Japan ranking below 50.

In addition, there was a surge in export confidence, with exporters reportedly 12 points more confident with their Q2 performance with a score of 51.6 points compared to the previous quarter.

With export expectations increasing to 54.3 points, up to 73% of exporters now expect higher or maintained profit levels, an increase from 55.9% in Q1 2024.

Despite rising transport and capital costs, along with exchange rate fluctuations, exporters believe that e-commerce growth, increased overseas market activities, and broader adoption of advanced technologies like AI will boost their businesses.