Will retail sales' consistent decline blow the economy hard?
Hang Seng Bank expects Hong Kong’s growth to pick up to 1.8% this year, with further economic recovery in advanced countries and the stabilisation of the mainland China economy.
"There are upside risks to our projection but we also take note of the economic uncertainties. Mr Chan may offer more insights in the Budget 2017/18, during which he is expected to announce the government’s economic forecast for the year," it said.
Here's more from Hang Seng Bank:
First, the low base effect may be bigger than we anticipate as retail sales and trade have both persistently declined for the past two or three years.
Second, economic confidence on global growth may further improve following the planned announcement of economic stimulus plans by the Trump administration later this year.
However, we are also mindful of the ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Hong Kong economy, including potential changes in international trade policy and the Mainland’s economic transition.
Financial Secretary Paul Chan may offer more insights in the Budget 2017/18, during which he is expected to announce the government’s economic forecast for the year.
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