Here's how Hong Kong developers were hurt by the Occupy Central protest

And are REITs badly hurt?.

Roughly two weeks have passed since the Occupy Central protest began on 28 September 2014, and it has been observed that based on the Hang Seng Property Index’s initial 3.8% correction during the week of September 28 and last week’s 1.5% rebound, it is believed that investors are starting to move beyond the initial uncertainties and business disruptions.

According to a research note from Barclays, one of the questions asked with regard to the matter is “Will share prices get back to their pre-protest highs?”

For this question, Barclays noted that all of this brings back to question of what to do with the Hong Kong property stocks now.

In Barclays' view, the decision tree can be simplified as follows: New normal equals old normal – If one holds the view that as the “Occupy Central” protest subsides and the economy and local consumption go back to the pre-protest norms (i.e. 100%), then it would also follow that Hong Kong property share prices should also return to their pre-protest levels.

On the other hand of the decision tree, new normal does not equal old normal – If one holds the view that while the economy and consumption recovers, they do not quite get back to 100%, then it would also follow that the rebounds may be limited and likely not reach the pre-protest highs.

Here's more from Barclays:

Looking broadly at the Hong Kong developers, landlords and REITs and using their highs and lows so far in 2014 as the outer bounds, we try to gauge the relative risk-return propositions.

For the developers to recapture their year highs, the implied upside would be 11%.

But for the developers to trade down to their year lows, the potential downside would be 18%. Similarly, for the landlords, the upside to their year highs would be 9% but the downside to the year lows would be 16%.

As for the REITs, their upside and downside risks appear more balanced at 10% and -11% to their year highs and year lows.